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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd