Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
